ALEX BIRD
Alex Bird was without doubt the most successful professional
gambler since the war. After having learned his trade as a
bookmaker working for his father's firm, he decided he could
make more money the other side of the book.
In 1947 certain racetracks introduced cameras at the winning
post to determine the outcomes of close finishes. Hence the
phrase 'photo finish'. Before this, the stewards would decide the
winner by eye. This was most unreliable and often ended in
disputes.
With the introduction of cameras at the line, bookies and
punters alike were often dismayed at the photo verdict. It is
often impossible to tell for certain which horse has won the
race in a tight finish just by standing at the winning post.
Alex Bird discovered a simple technique that was to bring him
a vast fortune. By standing at an elevated vantage point as
near to the winning post as possible, he would keep rigidly still;
close his left eye and create an imaginary line across the track
at the finishing line. For most punters bettingon a photo finish,
standing at the line watching the horses go past would create
an optical illusion that the horse on the far side had won. This
was invariably wrong and Bird would bet the other way. He
used this system on and off for the next 20 years.
Another of Alex Bird's shrewd methods involved backing
certain horses when the going was soft. Most professional
backers avoid betting at all when the going is soft or yielding
because horses seldom run true to form in such conditions.
If a horse is to be backed at all in poor going, the general view
is that horses with big wide feet (known in the game as soup
plates) have a better chance because their hooves don't sink
into the ground so easily.
Bird knew differently. He knew from diligent observation that
smaller, lightweight horses glided over the ground. Larger,
heavier horses, although stronger and faster under normal
conditions, would sink into the mud thus slowing them down.
The lighter horses would skim across the soft surface.
Very few people were wise to this and it made Alex Bird
another fortune over the years. Bookmakers, punters and
racing journalists would watch, totally baffled, wondering how
on earth this brilliant gambler could back skinny little horses in
unfavorable conditions and watch them romp home. If only
they'd known - itwas because they WERE skinny that they had
won.
Alex Bird was anextremely perceptive judge of racehorses and
another of his stunts was to create a false favorite.His bets
were hugh and often as high as $40,000 a time. Obviously,few
bookmakers would accept such bets from a backer of Bird's
calibre: so to help him he employed a team of helpers to place
bets for him across the country.
If Bird fancied a particular horse and the odds were not to his
liking, he would create a false favorite by placing, say $10,000
on another horse at the course. He would then ensure that it
was "leaked" that he had placed the bet. Prices would then
dramatically alter as the "mug" money poured onto his horse.
This meant that the price of the horse that he wanted to back
heavily and clandestinely off the course would drift out in the
market. His army of helpers would then back the horse off
course all over the country.
MULTIPLE HIT
Perms are commonplace in pools and fixed odds betting on
football, less so in racing. The nearest everyday approach in
racing is the Yankee - 11 bets covering 4 horses - or the
Canadian - 26 bets covering 5 horses.
For the same outlay as the Yankee covering 4 horses, this
methord covers 6 horses for the same stake (11 bets) and 15
units less than the Canadian covering only 5 horses. Laid out in
football-type format the "Multiplan" looks like this:
X O O O O X X X O X X Selection A
X X O O O O O O X X X Selection B
O X X O O X X O O O X Selection C
O O X X O O O X X O X Selection D
O O O X X X O O O X X Selection E
O O O O X O X X X X X Selection F
Bookmakers are always suspicious of this reduced entry and the
big bookmakers insist that all bets are made out on their own
entry forms. Write the bet out in full. Using the example six
selections as above your bets will look like this:-
5 Doubles: AB, BC, CD, EF, FG.
4 Trebles: ACE, ACF, ADF, BDF.
4 Horse Accumulator: ABDF.
6 Horse Accumulator: ABCDEF.
THE JAPANESE GENIUS
Arrange your bets in coups of 8 starting a fresh coup every 9th
bet. The complete staking is:-
Coup: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Staking: 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0
The maximum outlay is equal to 28 points. Should 7 successive
losers materialise on any sequence, start a fresh coup for the
losing operation only, on the 8th bet and increase stakes by the
percentage lost. Revert to original stakes for the sequence
following the recovery of losses.
Decrease by one point after each loser. After a win, increase
the last stake used by the odds or winning percentage of the
winner. Then decrease this by one point after each loser until
the next winner is found, then again increase the last stake used
by the odds or winning percentage of the winner. Bets are
under control at all times, as you bet after previous results are
known.
This staking methord can be used for most selection systems
even with favorites and second favorites.
The following example shows how a straight win bet becomes a
double, and then a treble in spite of intervening losers, and is
always under control - the sequence of winners being
immaterial.
COUP STAKE RESULT PROFIT LOSS
1. 7 lost - 7
2. 6 won 2/1 12 -
3. 8 won 3/1 24 -
4. 11 won 6/1 66 -
5. 17 lost - 17
6. 16 lost - 16
7. 15 lost - 15
8. 14 won 4/1 56 -
Winning points: 158 55 Losing points
Minus Losing points: 55
Equals: 103
THE NEWMARKET PLAN
This system is for handicaps only and involves form figures.
What we are looking for is a horse that hasn't won its last three
races but finished second in at least one of them. It is best to
wait until a horse has run at least three times before giving it
consideration. Allow up to six races in the form figures.
Usually, the more noughts there are in the form figures, the
longer the starting price of the horse will be, particularly if
nought was the most recent figure.
The reason we are looking for a second in the form figures is
because horses that have managed to finish second are, in
general, triers. Below are some examples of form figures that
you should look for.
EXAMPLE: 3 runs combination: 200 020 222
EXAMPLE: 4 runs combination: 2000 0020 2202
EXAMPLE: 5 runs combination: 20000 02020 20202
EXAMPLE: 6 runs combination: 202000 022020 202020
The selection methord is very simple but very effective, and a
whole meeting can be assessed in a couple of minutes. After
you have found the correct form figures, check to see if your
horse is in the betting forecast in a morning paper. If not,
discard it.
If it is in the betting forecast, check to see if it is tipped by at
least one of the newspaper tipsters. If it is not, check to see if
it has "S.F." after its name, meaning strongly fancied. If the
horse does not satisfy these criteria, discard it and go into the
next race. This system often produces selections at good prices.
Any selection over 5/1 should be backed each way.
THE GENTLE TOUCH
The reason bookmakers make money is because the odds that
they are prepared to offer you on a horse are usually rather
shorter than the genuine chance which the horse has on
winning. If you were to ask a bookie to quote you the odds on a
coin coming down heads, the best he would come up with would
be 4/5: the real odds, of course, being evens. In every
horserace you will find that the overall odds are in favor of
the bookmaker. Expressed as a percentage their advantage
tends to be in the region of 10 to 20 per cent. Usually it's the
case of the bigger the field, the bigger the advantage. So how
can you hope to beat them you may ask. In the case of other
games of chance where the "bank" also has an inbuilt
advantage, such as Roulette, many people would answer - you
can't. But horseracing is a special case. Just because the
OVERALL odds are in the bookmaker's favor, it does not
follow that every single horse in a race will be listed at a price
shorter than it should be.
Very often, for some reason or another, the bookmakers have
been over generous in their treatment of an indervidual horse.
The successful punter is the one who is consistently able to spot
such horses and backs only them.
Whatever selection procedure you use, and there are several
sound ones in this book, you can refer to the table which
follows to make sure that your bet is one of good value. For
example let's suppose your selection is in a handicap race and
is given as 100/30 in the morning papers or the Sporting Life.
Simply find 100/30 in the forcast odds column and read off the
equivalent figure in the handicap column. It's 5/1. So 5/1 would
be our minimum required price to bet. If the race was a non
handicap the minimum price would be 9/2. Handicaps are
slightly less predictable than non handicaps, hence the slightly
higher difference in odds required.
By betting in this manner the odds will always be in YOUR
favor - not the bookmakers. Even if you have to wait several
days before a value bet comes along, even though you may
miss a few winners on the way, the odds will be in your favor
in the long run.
FORECAST REQUIRED ODDS
ODDS NON H'CAP H'CAP
1/2 4/6 4/5
4/7 8/11 10/11
4/6 4/5 Evens
8/11 10/11 11/10
4/5 Evens 5/4
10/11 11/10 11/8
Evens 5/4 6/4
11/10 11/8 13/8
5/4 6/4 7/4
11/8 13/8 15/8
6/4 7/4 2/1
13/8 15/8 9/4
7/4 2/1 5/2
15/8 9/4 11/4
2/1 5/2 3/1
9/4 11/4 10/3
5/2 3/1 7/2
11/4 7/2 4/1
3/1 4/1 9/2
10/3 9/2 5/1
7/2 9/2 11/2
4/1 5/1 6/1
9/2 6/1 7/1
5/1 13/2 8/1
THE WHITTLER
This methord gives a steady flow of winning outsiders. The
idea behind this system is sound, and the proof is provided by
the large amounts of money won by following the simple rules.
After reaching their fifth year on the flat, most horses as far as
flat racing is concerned hve seen their best days gone by. With
rare exceptions, their winning potential declines to such an
extent that the expense of keeping them in training for another
season cannot be justified. It is on the rare exceptions that this
system is based.
There can be only one reason why horses of six years old or
more are kept in training: and that is because their connections
believe they can still win races.
Methord of selection:
- Handicaps are the only type of race considered.
- Flat racing only.
- Only horses aged 6 and over qualify.
- To qualify the horse must be set to carry the highest weight
of all the declared runners.
- Where two or more horses have been alloted joint top
weight there is to be no bet.
- Overweight and apprentice allowences are ignored.
